CBS Blogpoll Week 8

Another week, another poll. I'm still playing with the methodology, but have a look and let me know your thoughts, and we can discuss further in the comments:

Rank Team Delta
1 Florida
2 Texas 1
3 Alabama 1
4 TCU 4
5 Cincinnati 1
6 Boise State 1
7 Iowa 1
8 Southern Cal 3
9 Georgia Tech
10 LSU
11 Oregon 1
12 Virginia Tech 1
13 Miami (Florida) 8
14 Arizona 10
15 Pittsburgh 7
16 Penn State 3
17 Houston 3
18 Oklahoma State
19 West Virginia
20 South Carolina 5
21 Notre Dame
22 Ohio State 1
23 Clemson
24 Wisconsin
25 Utah 5

 

Dropped Out: Texas Tech (#15), Brigham Young (#16), South Florida (#17), Kansas (#21).
Watch List: Oklahoma, Kentucky, Oregon State, Georgia

Explanation After The Jump!

Quick Breakdown:

  • First, I ranked the 7 unbeatens. It's tough to to undefeated at this point in the season, and all of which are worthy of the top spots.
  • Secondly, I ranked the 1, 2, and 3 loss teams based on their strength of schedule (SOS), quality wins, expected losses, and style
    • Strength of Schedule (SOS) comes from a combination of Sagarin and Team Rankings.com SOS Power Rankings.
    • Quality wins are against teams that are likely going bowling later in the year. Wins over FCS opponents don't help you (but losses hurt).
    • Expected losses are those that one would expect. For example, would one expect #25th ranked team to lose to the #1 ranked team on the road, right? So why hurt a team for performing how they are expected.
    • Style looks at how a team is winning (and losing). For example, is a team dominating, or are they just barley scraping by teams? This is used to break ties more than anything else, so it isn't applied to all teams.
  • Remember, this is based on how the teams have performed so far; it has no bearing on the future. So teams can shuffle around even if they have the same record as each other. For example, say TCU is 10-0 and Iowa is 10-0. Iowa can move up relative to TCU if the teams they played in Weeks 9 and 10 move Iowa's strength of schedule above TCU's.

Breakdown By Team:

1. Florida: (7-0)

  • SOS: 23.5
  • Quality Wins: 3
  • Expected Losses: 0
  • Style: People make a big deal out of not dominating teams, but as I've said before, when you're the defending champ, you are going to get everyone's best shot.

2. Texas (7-0)

  • SOS: 45th
  • Quality Wins: 3
  • Expected Losses: 0
  • Style: Beating people up. They are starting slow, but the only game that was in doubt was against a very good Oklahoma team on a neutral site.

3. Alabama (8-0)

  • SOS: 20.5th
  • Quality Wins: 4
  • Expected Losses: 0
  • Style: Pretty solid, but almost lost at home to Tennessee. We could easily be dropping them down had they not blocked the Field Goal. A win over LSU is going to put them back in the #2 spot.

4. TCU (7-0)

  • SOS: 33rd
  • Quality Wins: 3
  • Expected Losses: 0
  • Style: Very solid. Beat two very good Clemson and Air Force teams on the road. The Air Force game looks closer than it was.

5. Cincinatti (7-0)

  • SOS: 61st
  • Quality Wins: 4
  • Expected Losses: 0

6. Boise State (7-0)

  • SOS: 57th
  • Quality Wins: 3
  • Expected Losses: 0
  • Style: This is a great team. I really think it's the best Boise State has ever put together. Too bad for them they play in the WAC.

7. Iowa (8-0)

  • SOS: 19th
  • Quality Wins: 6 (Yes, I'm saying ISU is going bowling this year)
  • Expected Losses: 0
  • Style: They have the most quality wins of the undefeateds, but I have them 7th. What gives? Needing to block two FGs to win at home against a FCS team, sweating it out at home against Arkansas State, and narrowly defeating Michigan and Michigan State. They are likely going to the Rose Bowl, but don't look as good as some of the elite. While all that matters is winning, they are a few plays away from being 5-3. If they can put out a convincing win or two, they will easily get in the Top 5.

8.  USC (6-1)

  • SOS: 16th
  • Quality Wins: 4 (3 on the road)
  • Expected Losses: 0
  • Style: Own worst enemy. Solid team, but it seems like every year they lose to a team they should take care of. This could be a real dynasty playing for National Championships almost every year, but they play themselves out of it. They have a huge game at Oregon that could determine the Rose Bowl participant.

9. Georgia Tech (7-1)

  • SOS: 8th
  • Quality Wins: 3
  • Expected Losses: 0
  • Style: Top-heavy schedule. They've played Miami (lost), Clemson, and VA-Tech, but up and down, but they've also played Mississippi State, and Florida State for example. For having a SOS of 8th, you would think they would have a deeper schedule.

10.  LSU (6-1)

  • SOS: 21st
  • Quality Wins: 2
  • Expected Losses:1 (Florida)

11. Oregon (6-1)

  • SOS: 16th
  • Quality Wins: 2
  • Expected Losses: 1 (Boise State)
  • Style: After getting slapped around by Boise, and getting embarrased by their RB, this team has rallied and played great. Would not be suprised if they play in the Rose Bowl, and have really surprised me this year. LSU gets the slight nod, as they have a tougher loss on their schedule.

12. Virginia Tech (5-2)

  • SOS: 3.5
  • Quality Wins: 4
  • Expected Losses: 1 (Alabama)
  • Notes: Best 2 loss team in my mind.

13. Miami (5-2)

  • SOS: 7th
  • Quality Wins: 2
  • Expected Losses: 0
  • Style:

14. Arizona (5-2)

  • SOS: 10th
  • Quality Wins: 3
  • Expected Losses: 1
  • Style:

15. Pittsburgh (7-1)

  • SOS: 55.5
  • Quality Wins: 4
  • Expected Losses: 0
  • Style:

16. Penn State (7-1)

  • SOS: 73.5th
  • Quality Wins: 3
  • Expected Losses: 1 (Iowa)
  • Style:

17. West Virginia (6-1)

  • SOS: 74
  • Quality Wins: 3
  • Expected Losses: 0
  • Style:

18. Houston (6-1)

  • SOS: 81.5
  • Quality Wins: 2
  • Expected Losses: 0
  • Style:

19. Oklahoma State (6-1)

  • SOS: 82.5
  • Quality Wins: 2
  • Expected Losses: 0
  • Style:

20. South Carolina (6-2)

  • SOS: 35
  • Quality Wins: 2
  • Expected Losses: 1 (Alabama)

21. Notre Dame (5-2)

  • SOS: 27
  • Quality Wins: 3
  • Expected Losses: 1

22. Ohio State (6-2)

  • SOS: 52.5
  • Quality Wins: 3
  • Expected Losses: 1

23. Clemson (4-3)

  • SOS: 10
  • Quality Wins 3
  • Expected Losses: 2 (Georgia Tech and TCU, 7 points combined)

24. Wisconsin (5-2)

  • SOS: 31
  • Quality Wins: 3
  • Expected Losses: 1 (Iowa)

25. Utah (6-1)

  • SOS: 58th
  • Quality Wins: 1
  • Expected Losses: 1 (Oregon)

Watch List Teams:

Oklahoma (4-3)

  • SOS: 23.5
  • Quality Wins: 2
  • Expected Losses: 1 (Texas)

Clemson (4-3)

  • SOS: 10
  • Quality Wins 3
  • Expected Losses: 2 (Georgia Tech and TCU, 7 points combined)

Kentucky (4-3)

  • SOS: 20
  • Quality Wins: 2
  • Expected Losses: 2 (Florida and Alabama... Who could expect to beat both teams in back-to-back weeks??)

Oregon State (4-3)

  • SOS: 13
  • Quality Wins: 2
  • Expected Losses: 2 (Cincy and USC)

Georgia (4-3)

  • SOS: 12
  • Quality Wins: 2
  • Expected Losses: 1 (LSU)

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