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2009 Predictions: Iowa State - 3rd Quarter

The 3rd quarter of the season features 1 home game and 2 road games.  Before getting into the predictions for the 3rd quarter, here's a recap of how I have ISU doing through the first half of the season:

  • NDSU: W
  • Iowa: W
  • at Kent St: W
  • Army: W
  • K-State: Close L
  • at Kansas: L

As a fan, if ISU does get to 4-2 at this point in the season, I am hoping for 2 more wins. To become bowl eligible would be huge for the team, and perhaps ISU could stop being the butt of so many jokes.

Let's take a look at how I think ISU will fare in Games 7-9:

Star-divide

Baylor: Last year Baylor smoked us, but I argue that ISU didn't show up. There were distractions such as Bates leaving the team, and ISU just didn't show up at all. I think this will be corrected come the middle of the season, and that will make for a better game. This is also a trap game for Baylor. Baylor will be just coming off of playing at Norman, and they will play Oklahoma State in Baylor the week after this game. Playing 2 Big Opponents, plus the players figuring they'd win since they beat us good last year, could play into ISU's hand.  I think we may see a less than inspired Baylor team come into Ames during this week. I also hope by this point in the season, our offense is clicking on all cylinders as the players start getting comfortable with the new offensive scheme.

Finally, I am wondering how Robert Griffin will fare this year. I think now that teams have seen a season's worth of film on him, defenses will figure out how to expose him. Baylor will be replacing a LT, LG (Jones only started 1 game last year), and a RT, so naturally there are a lot of questions about their team, especially when many are picking them for the postseason this year.

I look for ISU to avenge it's loss from last year, and for a less than inspired Baylor team to come into Ames.

at Nebraska: Loss. Hopefully a close loss, but that mostly depends on how Nebraska's offense turns out to be. Nebraska is turning the corner, like it or not. Their defense is looking to be pretty good next year. They are probably 2 good recruiting classes away from realistically competing for the Big 12, but I think they may be the best team in the North this year. Playing a more talented team on paper on the road, doesn't go well for us.

at Texas A&M: Loss. A&M beat us last year, despite all of the yards we got and lack of punting we did. College Station is another tough place to play. I realize that it was at A&M when we last won a road game, but I wouldn't bank on it this year. This is another toss up when looking at talent, but with toss-ups, I have to go with the home team.

Overall, that puts ISU at 5-4 (1-4 in the Big 12), and I think Cyclone fans would take that.

Let me know your thoughts!

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Way too optimistic

How long have you been watching ISU football for? I’ve found that tempering expectations is the best way to enjoy the season. I think a lot of your picks are based on emotion and a desire to see the team succeed.

As much as I like the projected W/L record, a winning record at that time in the season seems highly improbable.

by cyke on Aug 12, 2009 8:38 PM CDT reply actions  

Ok so where do we disagree?

Do you have Iowa and Baylor beating us?

I think Iowa is a better team than ISU on paper, but this is typically a close game at Jack Trice.

With Baylor, I’m just not sold on them, but I could very well be wrong…. I will be watching them closely this year.

All a projection is that. Once the ball is kicked in the air, it almost all goes out the window. I will do a weekly preview when the season is underway. I just am wanting to look at what this season could be, and it honestly gets me fired up for the season. I actually look at all the BCS teams, and will post a similar set of projections for the rest of the Big 12, but there will be less analysis.

I also just go back at last year and see a 4-5 win team if a few things go another way, and I think the players will improve. I also think the schedule is easier this year compared to last.

Thanks for your thoughts and let me know where you think we’ll be at 3/4 of the way through the season.

by Mark Kieffer on Aug 12, 2009 9:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

I’ll be the first person dancing in the street if this turns out to be a winning season. However, i’m also an Iowa State fan and know the hard reality that comes with following its performance over the years.

I’d love to see us win over Iowa and Baylor, but with a team trying to understand a new offense and one that has shown a penetrable defense, I see losses as a reality. Hell, I wouldn’t even call the Army game a given. We lost winnable games last year (Kansas, Colorado), what makes me think this year won’t be the same?

Given the schedule, 4 wins is more of a possibility than anything else. Call me a hardened cynic, but that’s what it is.

I hope I am wrong and will eat crow with pleasure if I am.

by cyke on Aug 13, 2009 5:29 PM CDT reply actions  

Fair enough

We’ll see how it plays out. I am figuring 6 wins, and you 4, so we’ll see where we end up. If we were playing next year’s schedule this year, I’d think we’d win 2-3 games max.

by Mark Kieffer on Aug 13, 2009 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

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