2009 Predictions: Iowa State - First Quarter
by Mark Kieffer on Aug 9, 2009 10:24 AM CDT
in Iowa State Football
16 comments
With the first game of the 2009 College Football Season just a few weeks ago, it's the perfect time to start looking at the schedule, and guessing how we think our Cyclones will do.
What I like to do when looking at the season is to break up the 12 games into quarters. Looking at it this way makes a lot of sense to me. The first and last quarters are the two most important in a football game. You want to start strong and you want to finish strong. In my opinion, the football season is the same way. When the goal is to be bowl eligible, starting the season strong and ending the season strong the gives you a real chance at getting to 6-7 wins.
Now some of you might be saying "well mplscyclone, the middle two quarters matter also", and then pointing out examples of games ISU has lost playing well in the first and fourth quarter, but poorly in the second and third quarter. Don't get me wrong. You want to do well in the middle also. All I am saying is that if you gain advantage at the beginning and finish strong at the end, all you have to do is hold steady in the middle to have a shot to win, or in this case to be bowl eligible.
Here is how the quarters look for the 2009 Iowa State Football Season:
First Quarter: North Dakota State (NDSU), Iowa, at Kent State
Second Quarter: Army, Kansas State (in KC), Kansas
Third Quarter: Baylor, at Nebraska, at Texas A&M
Fourth Quarter: Oklahoma State, Colorado, Missouri
I am going to break down each of the games in the first quarter. We will talk about the second, third, and fourth quarter in future posts during the week.
NDSU: Win easily. NDSU is a FCS school (formerly 1-AA), who went 6-5 last year including losing to South Dakota State. If you remember, South Dakota State is who we waxed in the season opener last year. Also, NDSU have had discipline problems, and it might be a shorter list of who is eligible to play instead of ineligible due to suspensions.
Iowa: Obviously the toughest and most pivotal game of the first quarter. ISU has won 7 out of the last 11, and we haven't lost at home to Iowa since 2003. At the same time this game is never a slam dunk. To me, Iowa has a better Offensive Line and will probably have a solid Defensive Line, even with the losses of King and Kroul. My mind tells me that if you have a better Offensive Line and Defensive Line than your opponent, then you will probably win the game.
My heart tells me that we lost a close one with a better Iowa team than this years (I am guessing 2008 Iowa will be better than 2009 Iowa, due to losing their DTs and Greene), and two years ago we beat Iowa without scoring a TD. It also says no effing way that Iowa comes into OUR HOUSE and wins!
So I keep going back and forth.
Arnaud is an upgrade to Stanzi. I can see situations were Stanzi gets protection from that good Offensive Line, yet makes a stupid mistake. Austen Arnaud typically doesn't committ the stupid turnover that Ricky Stanzi has done at times. Last year, Iowa had the advantages on the Offensive Line, Running Back, and the entire Defensive Side of the Ball, yet we outgained Iowa 325 to 240, and got more first downs (18 to 11). We were able to stay in the game because of our QB and WRs. Now that we're playing at home, I think ISU gets it's 8th win in 12 years against Iowa.
With a rivalry game like this, you have to throw some logic out the door. Usually Iowa is favored and is the better team on paper, yet ISU still finds ways to win a majority of the time in the last several years.
Kent State: We don't make fun of Kent State - At least I don't since Kent State beat us in our season opener in 2007. Pretty rough day: First game under a new coach, under the lights, all the hype, and we lose to a team in the MAC. Anyhow, I think this year will play like last year's 48-28 win. Kent State does return running back Eugene Jarvis for his Senior Year. Thier mobile QB Edelman has graduated, so Kent State will be going with a relativley new QB, which is a big plus for ISU.
A big problem area for Kent State last year was Special Teams. If you remember last year, ISU blocked 2 punts to set up for some easy scores. Hopefully we can make some big plays on Special Teams, such as a punt return/kick return for a TD, or a blocked punt .
As a fan this game does worry me a little bit: I think we're much better than Kent State, but road night games aren't the most friendly to ISU, so you never know what will happen. I think we win by 2-3 TDs as long as we play at a high level.
Overall, I have us going 3-0 and halfway to becoming bowl eligible in the first quarter. Really it's a nice opening schedule, particularly for a new coaching staff. You've got 1 FCS school, 1 MAC School, and a tossup game against your rival at home. Anything worse than 2-1 at this point in the season, I think we will have a reason to believe it will be another long year in Ames.
What are your thoughts on the opening quarter of the season? How do you see it? Am I crazy for having us 3-0 at this point, or do you see it the same way?
On Tuesday, look for my thoughts on the second quarter of the season!
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I don't think the Clones have the advantage of overlooking anyone.
After winning 4 games in 2 years the players have to be ready to go each an every start. I think Rhoads will have them prepared. NDST or Podunk U… if we play like we did last year we will get our butts handed to us with Christmas wrap. I am ready for some football. Go Clones…
Big difference
I never said the team should overlook anyone. I am saying as a fan, I am not worried about NDSU. Since it’s the coaching staff’s first game, the fact they have a month to prepare, plus the fact that NDSU appears to be weaker than in years past, why as a fan should I be worried?
by Mark Kieffer on Aug 10, 2009 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions
This seems familiar?
Turn back the block to October of 2007 when a certain prominent Star Tribune sportswriter had similar comments about a “overmatched” Bison team:
The Gophers are ready for a breakout performance
This is a game the Gophers won’t lose
Gophers 42, North Dakota State 21
http://www.startribune.com/sports/11712511.html
What really happened:
NDSU 27
Minnesota 21
…and it wasn’t that close, the Gopher’s were outgained by the Bison 585-307. NDSU’s totals included nearly 400 yards rushing and an 8 yard rush average and a 14 minute time of possession advantage.
This is starting to look like deja vu alll over again…
Deja Vu
Yeah for us too. Last year South Dakota State fans flooded Cyclone Messageboards and such proclaiming how it will be a tough game and they have a good chance at winning.
Those conversations turned into how “If our QB didn’t throw 4 INTs, it would’ve been a game”. Last time I checked, defense is part of the game too.
Like I said, I’m not crapping on NDSU’s past. I just don’t see the similarities to 2007 and 2009 for NDSU, and I can assure you that the 2009 Cyclones will be much better than the 2007 Gophers.
by Mark Kieffer on Aug 10, 2009 9:32 PM CDT up reply actions
IDK
If that’s a good thing or a bad thing….
by Mark Kieffer on Aug 13, 2009 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Really? You can't figure this one out?
I got more rhymes than Wade Lookingbill's got dunks
by Adam Jacobi on Aug 14, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Man, numbers are fun
ISU has won 7 out of the last 11,
Man, numbers are fun. Could I say that Iowa has won 4 of the last 6 games? Or that Iowa has won 19 of the last 26? The ISU “dominance” in this series is as increasingly far removed as Iowa’s own dominance in the series. When you’ve traded the last five games in the series, I think it’s safe to call it pretty even.
and we haven’t lost at home to Iowa since 2003.
Yep, a whole two game winning streak over Iowa at home there – pretty impressive.
My mind tells me that if you have a better Offensive Line and Defensive Line than your opponent, then you will probably win the game.
Your mind and plenty of stats.
My heart tells me that we lost a close one with a better Iowa team than this years (I am guessing 2008 Iowa will be better than 2009 Iowa, due to losing their DTs and Greene),
It will be different. Likely weaker in those areas, but possibly stronger in other areas – whether or not that will translate into a better or worse overall team is TBD.
and two years ago we beat Iowa without scoring a TD.
Is that a sign of anything more than luck? You’re not going to win many games scoring ZERO touchdowns.
It also says no effing way that Iowa comes into OUR HOUSE and wins!
It’s too bad for you guys that Jack Trice apparently only has enough mojo for one game’s worth of homefield advantage.
I think you're missing the point
ISU has beaten or at least played close to better Iowa teams and worse ISU teams.
I think the game will be close and playing at home will be the edge. If you think Iowa will win, then go ahead. I’m just so used to seeing us double digit underdogs only to play close or to win.
If you want to call it luck, go ahead, as sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Just look at me hoping for an ISU win as hoping our luck continues…
Your point is fine - ISU has done well against Iowa over the last decade, especially at home
But many of the reasons you used to try and support your point were weak and can easily be twisted in a different direction.
Also, re: Stanzi v. Arnaud. Arnaud had 15 TDs and 10 INTs last year; Stanzi had 14 TDs and 9 INTs. Not a huge separation between them – and Stanzi came up clutch toward the end of the year in ways that Arnaud has never come close to duplicating. I like Arnaud as a QB, but I’m not convinced he’s way better (or even just better) than Stanzi.
If you think
I suck at writing, then go ahead and post a fanpost. If it’s good, I’ll put it on the front page.
Are you really going to compare Arnaud and Stanzi like that?
Stanzi had so many advantages last year: a good OL, the best running back, a non-injured throwing shoulder, etc.
by Mark Kieffer on Aug 18, 2009 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, the turnover issue is the only direct example you provided for Arnaud v. Stanzi
And in that instance they’re pretty even.
There’s no question that turnovers are Stanzi’s biggest issue, but he showed the ability to overcome them and he made clutch plays at key times, such as the end of the PSU game, on the road in the Metrodome, and in the early going of the Outback Bowl (he made a series of clutch third down throws to Myers that kept the first TD drive going when South Carolina was selling out to stop Greene). I haven’t seen anything like that from Arnaud.
But, like I said, I don’t think Arnaud is bad. I think he’s a good QB, with the potential to be very good. I feel the same way about Stanzi, though, and think the difference between them is pretty minimal at this point. I was objecting to your assertion that Arnaud is an upgrade on Stanzi – I don’t think that’s clear yet.
We will find out this year
I think Arnuad will be healthy, and the ISU offense will be slightly better than last year.
With Stanzi, he will not have as solid of a running game, some questions at WR but will still have a solid offensive line.
Both guys are the established starters, so we will see how they do.
by Mark Kieffer on Aug 20, 2009 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions
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