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The "Official" Clone Chronicles 2010 Big 12 Predictions: Part One

It's late July, Big 12 Media Days are right around the corner. Everyone is doing their preseason awards, so I figure I'd join in as well. I'm breaking down my Big 12 thoughts into four parts as we count down to Big 12 Media Days. Part One discusses power rankings, projected standings, and projected bowl berths. Part Two will go up tomorrow, and dive a little more in depth of Part One by going through the schedules by teams (so you can see how I arrived at the final conclusions). In Part Three I will unveil my Clone Chronicles Preseason All-Big 12 Team, and other award winners. Part 4 I will provide a list of fearless predictions, along with updating my Top 25 Preseason Team. Check back between today and Monday


The "official" Clone Chronicles Preseason Big 12 Power Rankings:

  1. Oklahoma
  2. Texas A&M
  3. Texas
  4. Nebraska
  5. Missouri
  6. Texas Tech
  7. Iowa State
  8. Colorado
  9. Kansas State
  10. Oklahoma State
  11. Baylor
  12. Kansas

A couple of quick notes here: Texas Tech is really hard to pinpoint, because I have no idea how Tuberville is going to handle the talent he has on the team. I've also heard of a USC player or two wanting to transfer fo CU, because they could do so without having to sit out. If CU is able to pick up a couple of impact guys, they could catapult up a little.  I think in general 6-10 could be ordered however you want. I'm also not huge on Baylor like everyone else seems to be, and I think people are overrating Kansas to no end for this year. Remember, this is based on power as in who would beat who, no so much on how I think the standings will end (which is on the next page)

Star-divide

The "official" Clone Chronicles Projected Big 12 Final Standings:

Big 12 North:

  1. Nebraska (9-3 overall, 6-2 in conference)
  2. Missouri (9-3 overall, 5-3 in conference)
  3. Colorado (8-4 overall, 5-3 in conference)
  4. K-State (6-6 overall, 3-5 in conference)
  5. Iowa State (4-8 overall, 2-6 in conference)
  6. Kansas (2-10 overall, 0-8 in conference)

In short, Nebraska and Missouri return a lot and are the two best teams. I could actually see Missouri winning the North if Nebraska's offense does not improve. I don't think you can be an elite team without solid QB play, and I'm not 100% sold on Nebraska's defense being better despite losing one of the greatest linemen to ever play at the college level. Crick is going to be the guy double teamed all the time now instead of Suh, so we'll see.

I know some on here might think of me as hating on the team or being negative. What I worry about is that run of Utah, @Oklahoma, and @Texas to really knock a lot out of this team. I have ISU beating Texas Tech and Kansas in the conference schedule, and I think beating CU is a possible as well. We have to admit beating Nebraska was flukey and Missouri is returning a lot, and they were already ahead of us. I think we're equal to K-State talent-wise, but they don't have to play both Texas and Oklahoma. Maybe ISU can get another special win or two this season, but we are going to have to see.

Last year, I had ISU going 6-6 and back to a bowl game, and was ridiculed pretty hard by both ISU and non-ISU fans as being too optimistic. This year, I'm sure ISU fans will think I'm being pessimistic, and non-ISU fans will think I'm still being too optimistic. In my heart, I want ISU to do better than this, but it's hard to see until we watch how we look the first couple of games.

Big 12 South:

  1. Oklahoma (12-0 overall, 8-0 in conference)
  2. Texas A&M (10-2 overall, 7-1 in conference)
  3. Texas (10-2 overall, 6-2 in conference)
  4. Texas Tech (7-5 overall, 4-4 in conference)
  5. Oklahoma State (5-7 overall, 3-5 in conference)
  6. Baylor (4-8 overall, 1-7 in conference)

I'm obviously big on Oklahoma. I thought last year they were too good to be just an 8 win team, despite all of the injuries. This year most of that team is back, and while the O-Line and QB struggled at times, the experience of last year is going to help them a lot, as they return 4 guys on the O-Line, and have an experience receiving corps. They have some key spots to replace on the D-Line and at LB, but I think they will be just fine, and will finally beat Texas in the quasi-Big 12 South championship game. 

Texas' QB is more of a pro-style QB, and I've heard they will have to swtich up the playbook to tailor the talent they have. I also know that nobody is too big on their running backs as well. I know it's Texas and they reload, but even powerhouses have "down" years to an extent.

With Texas Tech, they are switching everything, and I could see them going 4-8 or 5-7 as well if there are growing pains with a new offense and defense. The personnel on this team was built to outscore you 42-35, and Tubberville isn't exactly an offensive kind of a guy. It's probably one of the most interesting stories of the year.

I'm also big on A&M, but I figure this: they have a potentially elite QB in Jerrod Johnson, and they've been pulling in Top 25 recruiting classes each of the last 3 years. It has to eventually work out for them, or they'll be making a coaching change in College Station.

The "official" Clone Chronicles Projected Big 12 Bowl Berths:

In order of bowl selection order (which has been revised from last year):

  1. BCS Championship - Oklahoma
  2. Cotton Bowl - Texas vs. SEC
  3. Alamo Bowl - Texas A&M vs. Pac-10
  4. Insight - Nebraska vs. Big 10
  5. Holiday - Colorado vs. Pac-10
  6. Texas - Texas Tech vs. Big 10
  7. New Era Pinstripe - Kansas State vs. Big East

I don't think the Big 12 gets anyone to the Fiesta Bowl (unless Texas has only 1 loss), and I think the Dallas Football Classic will be open as well. I put Nebraska at the Insight and CU in the Holiday Bowl because those are against future conference opponents for those teams.

This concludes Part One in the series. Tomorrow, we'll go more in depth on the schedule, where I show you which games I think each team will win and lose, and why.

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Ouch!!

Kansas at 2-10 and 0-8 in conference? I hope you’re wrong.

I won’t say I disagree with your stating they are being overrated pretty consistently, but I think they’ll win a couple games this year in conference.

In case you missed it...I used to go by Denverjhawk : )

Questions, Comments? email me at denverjhawk@hotmail.com
Follow me on Twitter, Owen_Kemp

by Owen Kemp on Jul 22, 2010 4:25 PM CDT reply actions  

Wasn't trying to pile on KU

But you do realize that they won only 1 conference game last year, and it was in that shootout against Iowa State. They lost All-Big 12 kind of talent with Reesing, Briscoe, Meier, and Stuckey all gone. I absolutley loved Todd Reesing too.

But anyhow, I figure they lose all their playmakers, have a new coaching staff, it probably isn’t going to be the greatest season for them.

They play Georgia Tech and Southern Miss in the non-conference, which I think are both losses. In the conference, I think KU has the chance to win @ Baylor, K-State, @ Iowa State, Colorado, and Oklahoma State. Baylor isn’t all that, and Oklahoma State lost everybody, and while K-State, ISU, and CU aren’t world beaters, I think they have more established guys.

I could see KU going anywhere from 0 to 5 conference wins. It all depends on how their QB and WRs come along, and if Gill can get any magic going.

I think KU will be moving in the right direction, with a great coach. You’re probably right. They might win a game or two in the conference, but without seeing them play, it’s hard to say which two.

by Mark Kieffer on Jul 23, 2010 8:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

oh I agree..

there are plenty of question marks.

In case you missed it...I used to go by Denverjhawk : )

Questions, Comments? email me at denverjhawk@hotmail.com
Follow me on Twitter, Owen_Kemp

by Owen Kemp on Jul 24, 2010 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

Way wrong on Texas Tech

Hi I am a Texas Tech alum and came across your blog accidentally. I like your predictions about the Big XII. But I have a quick couple of comments. First, its Tuberville and not Tubberville. Second, I like the fact that everybody is underestimating Tech, which keeps us under the radar but I think you have given way too much credit to Texas A&M. The Aggies have had a horrible 2009 and return almost the same team in 2010, I don’t see much improvement in the 2010 version of the team, infact the team might regress a bit because they have both their offensive and defensive coordinators introducing new things. Finally, I don’t think that Nebraska is that good either. But I think the Big XII South will look something like this: OU, Tech, Texas, Ok.State, Tx A&M and Baylor. One last thing, I have this feeling that the team under the radar in the North is Iowa State. I think the cyclones will win a few games they are not expected to with that defense of theirs. Just my two cents. Thanks for letting me post here.

by jef on Jul 22, 2010 8:26 PM CDT reply actions  

My bad about the spelling, I fixed that.

They return 4 All-Big 12 players, and have to replace only 2 starters on the defense. On the offense they have a couple of experienced WRs coming back, along with an experience RB and QB. Their offensive line is a little worrisome for me, as they are young (Eike is the oldest returner as a junior). I am thinking having a QB that can move around a little is going to bail that O-Line out a lot.

On top of having 3 consecutive Top 25 recruiting classes, I’m being optimistic in a sense, that they guys who are filling in have some serious upside.

I just feel like if something big doesn’t happen for A&M this year, it’s probably never going to happen with Mike Sherman. I’m not an expert on that team, but having a guy on each side of the ball who have a chance to be Offensive/Defensive player of the year in the conference is a special thing.

If Texas is going to have a “down” year, it’s going to be this year.

With Tech, I just have a hard time believe that Tuberville is going to be running that Air Raid. Tubervile is a fine coach, but his style vs. the type of players on the team do not match up, IMO. Is he going to be willing to be less conservative on offense, and accept that his defense isn’t going to be the backbone of the team?

3-4 years from now he’ll be able to transform the dynamic of Texas Tech into more of a defensive team, but it’s going to take time. Typically when a coach doesn’t have the personnel to do things the way he wants to, it just doesn’t go well.

I think TTU could do better than 6-6 for sure. Actually, I had them at 7/8 wins when I originally did this, but knocked off a game or two due to the fact that I figured there’d be some growing pains with this team.

Just my thoughts. With all of it, the best thing about it is that all of these teams will have to prove it on the field, and it really doesn’t matter what I think! I just have fun doing these types of things and talking about the teams.

Thanks for reading!

by Mark Kieffer on Jul 23, 2010 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

Thanks.

But I have said it here, the ’Clones and the Raiders will surprise a few this year in the North and South.

by jef on Jul 23, 2010 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions  

I also made a mistake

Texas Tech should be 7-5 and 4-4 in conference. I accidentally counted Houston as a conference team. Details are in Part Two, which will be posted later today.

by Mark Kieffer on Jul 23, 2010 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

Another Raider blogger here .. Mark

Just to pile on .. Though I agree we don’t know if Tuberville can stand it and leave the Air Raid offense alone. He did hire Neal Brown as his offensive coordinator from Troy who is a Leach acolyte. They have tried to institute a sped up version of the spread which has been dubbed NASCAR. The goal being to run 80 -100 offensive plays in game. They kept Sonny Cumbie a former Raider QB(under leach) and hired Tommy Mainord as a wide receivers coach, from Texas State. Matt Moore the Leach O-Line coach was retained as well. The final indicator is that the new offensive coordinator kept the Leach plays and vernacular so there wouldn’t be a mistake in play calling. In fact during the spring game there was an attempt to run the hurry up and it was very pass heavy. 75 % pass – 25 % run at a minimum. But again stil a lot more runs than Leach would call.

"do routine things routinely"

by centexraider on Jul 23, 2010 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

Ok, I see your logic on your concerns with DeRuyter
both their offensive and defensive coordinators introducing new things.

But what is new about our offense?

by Beergut on Jul 24, 2010 12:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

Another take

I have a hard time seeing Colorado winning 8 games, and 5 in the league. It seems like after the last four years, most people think the Hawkins ship is sinking. Plus the Buffs play an awfully tough non-conference schedule. I realize Okie. St lost some playmakers, but Gundy has them on a steady upward climb ever since he took over. I suspect they’ll win at least 6 or 7. I agree with the Texas Tech dude earlier. A&M couldn’t stop anybody last year. You know the saying: Offense sells tickets, but defense wins games. And for our Clones, I think they’ll win more than 4, but will have to catch some breaks and be at the top of their game to get to six wins.

by MichiganClone on Jul 23, 2010 11:08 AM CDT reply actions  

love your optimism about A&M, Mark

if we go 7-1 in the South and 10-2 overall, I believe we’d be going to the Cotton Bowl, as the #2 pick from the Big 12, though

by Beergut on Jul 24, 2010 12:32 AM CDT reply actions  

Fair enough. I’m not sure what the dynamic is in Texas with the teams regarding bowl attractiveness. I’d imagine both would do well in bowls with attendance and TV ratings. I just know Texas has been running things in recent times, and thought the Cotton would nab them. But I could see it going the other way.

I know I’m probably a little too optimistic about A&M. Often times teams have games they “should” win and don’t. My prediction for them was probably a little bit less of a baseline guess. Either way, I hope they don’t let me down!

by Mark Kieffer on Jul 26, 2010 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions  

Um, Mizzou is sitting at 9-3 in your projections

But not slotted for a bowl game in your list.

What did I miss in your write up?

by nwtiger1 on Jul 29, 2010 11:16 AM CDT reply actions  

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