On Saturday, November 1st, our Cyclones take on the Cowboys of Oklahoma State in Stillwater, Oklahoma.
I wanted to write a quick preview on what we would possibly see on Saturday (for those of us brave enough to watch).
Line: Oklahoma State by 30.5
Oklahoma State Offense:
- 6th best in the Nation averaging 43.6 points per game, and 491 yards of total offense
- They have a balanced attack, averaging 275 rushing yards, and 216 passing yards.
- When rushing, they are led by two backs: a sophomore, Kendall Hunter, and a junior, Keith Toston.
- Hunter gets about 21 carries a game, averages 6.6 yards a carry, and gets just over 1 TD a game (has 10 in 8 games thus far). He's the Big XII's leading rusher.
- Toston gets about 9 carries a game, averages 7.3 yards a carry, and gets 1 TD per game
- The passing attack is led by Junior-QB Zac Robinson
- Robinson has a QB rating of 183.88. He has a 69.4% completion percentage, averages 20 attempts per game, gets the 216 passing yards a game, throws for 1.875 TDs a game, and has only thrown 4 picks the entire season. He'll also tuck and run it as he has 86 carries on the season
- Robinson's favorite target is Sophomore WR Dez Bryant. This explosive WR has 51 receptions, 883 yards, and 11 TDs on the season in 7 games! (he sat out 1 game). 883 is good enough to be the leading receiver in the Big XII
- TE Pettigrew is emerging as he caught 8 passes for 83 yards against Texas last week.
The offense may create BIG problems for ISU- we're the 102nd ranked defense in the nation. We have shown that we can't stop the run consistently. With two backs averaging 6.5-7.5 yards a carry, it doesn't look like this is an attack we'll be able to stop.
Also, ISU's defense last game was prone to the big play on passing. Dez Bryant is averaging 17 yards/reception. I think Bryant is licking his chops a little and can create headaches for the Cyclones Secondary.
In general, the Cowboys like to throw it down the field when they do pass; Robinson completes about 14 passes a game for the 216 yards. That's about 15 yards a completion.
Our passing and rushing defense haven't been great. With a team like Oklahoma State, you can't just focus on 1 phase of their game. They run it more than pass it, but are very efficient at both. To stop them, you need a quick, explosive defense, and that just doesn't sounds like ISU this year.
Could be a long afternoon if the Cowboys can run it successfully and Robinson gets in a groove.
Oklahoma State Defense:
- Allows 21.5 points per game (ISU scores about 26 per game)
- They allow 356 yards a game: 240 in the air and 116 on the ground
- They don't force a lot of turnovers, typically 1 a game or so
- They get pressure, but only will sack 1 or 2 times a game as well.
Having only watched the Cowboys a little this year, and after going through the stats, it looks like their defense has a "bend but don't break" mentality. It looks like opponents can move the ball against them, but Oklahoma State does a good job of keeping their opponents out of the end-zone and off the scoreboard.
Something I did notice about their defense, is that they are explosive, swarm to the ball, and make tackles.
We sound outmatched, and I hope the Cyclones can keep it competitive. I think the spread is a little too high, as I think we'll be able to move the ball in the air, get first downs, and score 24-28 points.
Prediction: ISU: 24 , Okie State: 42