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Week 12: Examining Iowa State's Bowl Chances

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Now that the Cyclones have gotten to that "magical" 6 win number, they have become bowl eligible. The next question on our minds, is whether ISU will go bowling, and if so, where?

Below is the breakdown of what needs to happen for ISU to go bowling, and also takes a look at their destination possibilities.

Plan A: Beat Missouri next week. Getting to 7 wins will ensure us of getting to a bowl. Just have to worry about where we go.

Plan B: We end with 6 wins. Hope that some of the bowl eligible teams stay at 6 wins as well.In order to see how that looks, let's have a look at how the Big 12 is looking (bolded teams have 7+ wins right now):

Big 12: 8 bowls including a BCS game

Bowl Eligible Teams (7): Texas, Oklahoma State,  Nebraska, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, ISU, Missouri

Bubble Teams (4): K-State (6-5), Texas A&M (5-5), Kansas (5-5), Baylor (4-6)

Out (1): Colorado

Throwing Baylor on the bubble is being a little generous. Mathematically they are in it, but I doubt that they are going to be able to run the table against A&M and Texas Tech. At the same time, you never know in this conference.

8 bowls, 7 teams eligible with 4 potentially able to get a bowl bid. I think it's pretty straightforward.

Now let's look at the "bubble" teams' remaining schedules to gauge the chances of them getting to bowl eligibility:

K-State: @Nebraska

Texas A&M: Baylor and Texas

Kansas: @Texas and Missouri

Baylor: @Texas A&M and Texas Tech

If I had to predict this, I would think that K-State was lose, falling short of the North and a bowl bid. A&M will probably beat Baylor, but lose to Texas getting to 6 wins. Kansas has a chance to beat Missouri, but with the way they're playing it's hard to pick them. Still, they are at most getting to 6 wins.

Let's say that K-State plays out above and they miss a bowl. A&M wins one more, and gets eligible. That puts 8 bowl eligible teams with 8 bowls, which would work out well for ISU.

If K-State is out, then I think ISU either goes to the Insight or the Independence Bowl (with Missouri getting the other). I just think that A&M is the best draw for the Texas Bowl.

If K-State is in, and ISU has 7 wins, then ISU is going to the Independence Bowl with K-State probably getting the Insight bowl.

However, if K-State is in the mix and ISU is at only 6 wins, they may have to look outside of the Big 12 for a bowl.

If ISU has to go outside of the conference, here are the bowls that look like they will be open:

GMAC: Against the MAC runner up (likely Temple)

Humanitarian: Against the WAC #1 (either Boise State or Nevada)

These are bowls that could potentially become open:

New Mexico: Against WAC #2 (either Nevada, Fresno State, or Idaho)

Eaglebank: Against CUSA #6 (depends, but likely Marshall at this point)

New Mexico would open up if San Diego State and Wyoming do not get eligible.

Eaglebank would open up if Duke does not get eligible. Even then, it could be open depending on the BCS situation.

Hopefully this makes sense. Getting another win next week would simplify the process, and it will be interesting to see how it goes for ISU!

I can't wait for next week! We gotta beat the Tigers!