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2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Second Quarter

The Second Quarter of the Big 12 Schedule features all teams except Texas wrapping up their non-conference schedule and heading into the conference season.

Here's a quick summary of the win-loss record for each season as they head into the second quarter:

  • Baylor: 2-1
  • Colorado: 3-0
  • Kansas: 3-0
  • Kansas State: 2-1
  • Missouri: 2-1
  • Nebraska: 2-1
  • Oklahoma: 3-0
  • Oklahoma State: 2-1
  • Texas: 3-0 (1-0 in conference)
  • Texas A&M: 3-0
  • Texas Tech: 2-1 (0-1 in conference)

On to the second quarter we go:

In the first portion of the season, all of the teams have a bye week, but that bye week comes at a different time. In order to try to help with the timing, I am going to list games by date. Also, when we head to the conference portion of the season, to save space, I will write the match ups as opposed to listing every team and schedule. The home team will be on the right. Example: x vs. y, y is the home team.

Week 4 (Sept 26)

  • UTEP vs. Texas: Texas blew UTEP out at UTEP last year, and I expect the same this year.
  • Grambling St. vs. Oklahoma State: Top 25 team vs a FCS school? OSU wins easily
  • Texas Tech vs. Houston: I think Houston pulls off the upset. Houston is going to be tough, and can put up the points to stay with Tech. Plus, Tech doesn't always do well on the road. I think this is going to be a shootout, but Houston finds a way to win.
  • Louisiana vs. Nebraska: This may be a game until the 2nd half, but Nebraska pulls away and wins
  • Tennessee Tech. vs. Kansas State: The 2nd FCS team K-State will play and beat this year
  • Southern Miss vs. Kansas: This could be a good game. Southern Miss is going to be tough. KU will have the offense to put up the points, so the question will be if they have just enough defense to win, and I think they do.
  • Missouri vs. Nevada (Friday, Sept 25): Missouri blew out Nevada last year, but Missouri is looking to be down from last year, and Nevada improved from last year. I just don't think those factors make up for the 50+ points Missouri beat Nevada by. Missouri wins, but the score will be more respectable.
  • Bye: Oklahoma, Colorado
  • Other Games: Northwestern St vs. Baylor and UAB vs. Texas A&M are games occurring this week that fall into the first quarter of Baylor's and A&M's season. Check the first quarter preview for details on these.

Week 5 (October 3)

  • Oklahoma vs. Miami: Oklahoma wins, but hopefully this is a fun game to watch. Miami will be improved, but I don't know if they can hang with OU (probably not)
  • New Mexico vs. Texas Tech:  New Mexico won't be good, plus this is going to be played in Lubbock, so TTU wins
  • Kent St. vs. Baylor: Baylor should win, as I don't think Kent State will be that good, despite the return of RB Eugene Jarvis
  • Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (in Arlington, TX): Arkansas is looking to be bowl eligible this year, and with the always tough SEC schedule ahead, Arkansas will need this W to keep that hope alive. I think they do it, as A&M hasn't had any mojo, and I would think the atmosphere at this game will be awesome.
  • Colorado vs. West Virginia (October 1): WVU at home, on a Thursday night, just sounds like a win to me. The game was close last year, (17-14 , CU in OT) and I think it will be close again this year, and in those situations, I go with the home team. WVU wins
  • Kansas State vs. Iowa State (Kansas City, MO): K-State wins close, see ISU prediction posts for details
  • Bye: Texas, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri

Before we head into the full fledged conference season, here's what the standings look like now:

Big 12 North:

  • Kansas State: 1-0 (4-1 overall)
  • Kansas: 4-0
  • Colorado: 3-1
  • Missouri: 3-1
  • Nebraska: 3-1
  • ISU: 0-1 (4-1 overall)

Big 12 South:

  • Texas: 1-0 (4-0 overall)
  • Oklahoma: 4-0
  • Baylor: 3-1
  • Oklahoma State: 3-1
  • Texas A&M: 3-1
  • Texas Tech: 0-1 (3-2 overall)

Enjoy being in first for a week Kansas State, because I do not think it is going to last long.

Heading to Week 6 (October 10):

  • Colorado vs. Texas: Texas beat CU 38-14 at Boulder last year, and Texas is looking to be as strong as last year, with so many guys coming back. Texas wins again.
  • Baylor vs. Oklahoma: Oklahoma blew Baylor out at Baylor last year (49-17). Oklahoma will have the offensive playmakers to put up the points, and the defense to hold Baylor again.
  • Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M: OSU should win this somewhat easily.
  • Kansas State vs. Texas Tech: A pretty even matchup here, but I give the nod to the Red Raiders as they can be pretty tough to be at Lubbock.
  • Nebraska vs. Missouri (October 8): Nebraska will be heading into Columbia looking for payback from their 52-17 blowout loss. Missouri won't be as explosive on offense, but do have a good OL and should have a good running game. To me, this plays into Nebraska's hand, and Nebraska will win in a lower scoring than last year affair.
  • Iowa State vs. Kansas: KU wins, see my ISU 2nd Quarter Predictions

Week 7 (October 17)

  • Oklahoma vs. Texas:  This is THE game of the Big 12 in my opinion.  I think whoever wins this will go to the National Championship game. Texas is going to have a chip on their shoulder as they go out to prove that they should be in the National Championship game, especially after getting screwed over (someone was going to get screwed over regardless). Oklahoma is going to want to avenge their loss from last year and prove that they deserve to go to the National Championship game. It's going to be really close, probably decided on the last possession, but I think Oklahoma wins. I like Oklahoma's defense more than Texas, and think that will be the difference. Offensivley, these teams will be dead even.
  • Missouri vs. Oklahoma State: Both teams are going to have a pretty balanced offensive attack. I think Oklahoma State has less questions at QB, and WR, so I think their offense will be better than Mizzou. With Oklahoma State, the question is usually about their defense, but Mizzou's defense hasn't been good in recent years either. I think OSU wins at home.
  • Texas Tech vs. Nebraska: Nebraska played close to Tech last year (lost 31-37) in Lubbock. This year, in Lincoln, with an improving Nebraska team, and a somewhat down Tech team (at least I expect them to be), I think Nebraska wins.
  • Baylor vs. Iowa State: I think ISU will win in a close game. Check the ISU 3rd Quarter Predictions for details
  • Texas A&M vs. Kansas State: I like Kansas State in this one. As long as A&M isn't looking good, it's going to be hard for me to pick them to win on the road.
  • Kansas vs. Colorado: This is a huge game for CU. If they want to be serious about competiting in the North, this is a must-win. I like Kansas' offense though and they've had CU's number in recent years. This could be an entertaining game, as the winner would have a leg up on the other in trying to win the North. I think KU wins by a low margin.

Now that I've wrapped up the 2nd quarter for most teams (ISU and KSU will be at their 7th game), let's take a look at how this shapes up in the standings:

Big 12 North:

  • Nebraska: 2-0 (5-1 overall)
  • Kansas: 2-0 (6-0 overall)
  • Kansas St: 2-1 (5-2 overall)
  • ISU: 1-3 (5-2 overall)
  • Colorado: 0-2 (3-3 overall)
  • Missouri: 0-2 (3-3 overall)

Big 12 South:

  • Oklahoma: 2-0 (6-0 overall)
  • Oklahoma State: 2-0 (5-1 overall)
  • Texas: 1-1 (5-1 overall)
  • Texas Tech: 1-2 (4-3 overall)
  • Baylor: 0-2 (3-3 overall)
  • Texas A&M: 0-2 (3-3 overall)

At this point in the season, we have Nebraska and Oklahoma with the inside edge at the Championship Game, while OSU and Kansas are right there.  I think the Texas loss puts them out of National Championship contention, but they could reach a BCS bowl (if OU does in fact go on to the Championship Game).

This sets up interesting matchups between OU and OSU, Texas and OSU, Nebraska and Kansas, and Kansas and Kansas State, which we will look at closer in the 3rd and 4th quarter projections.

How do you see this shaking out so far? Am I dogging anyone that you think will be better? Am I overrating anyone? Your thoughts are always appreciated!