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2009 Predictions: Big 12 - Third AND Fourth Quarter

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By Mark Kieffer
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A big reason why I wanted to break down the football season into quarters is because that's how I personally look at the football season, and also to not overload you with information. Because there are several things coming in the pipeline that I'd like to get to before our football season starts (TWO WEEKS AWAY!!!).

Here's a look at my projected Big 12 Standings through the halfway point (or close to that) of the season:

Big 12 North:

  • Nebraska: 2-0 (5-1 overall)
  • Kansas: 2-0 (6-0 overall)
  • Kansas State: 2-1 (5-2 overall)
  • ISU: 1-3 (5-2 overall)
  • Colorado: 0-2 (3-3 overall)
  • Missouri: 0-2 (3-3 overall)

Big 12 South:

  • Oklahoma: 2-0 (6-0 overall)
  • Oklahoma State: 2-0 (5-1 overall)
  • Texas: 2-1 (5-1 overall)
  • Texas Tech: 1-2 (4-3 overall)
  • Baylor: 0-2 (3-3 overall)
  • Texas A&M: 0-2 (3-3 overall)

I would expect to see Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Nebraska, and KU all ranked in the Top 25 at this point of the season, but that's stating the obvious.

On to the projections for the third and fourth quarter of the 2009 Big 12 Football Season:

Week 8 (October 24)

  • Colorado at Kansas State: On paper, I think these teams are pretty even. K-State lost by 1 at Boulder last year. Since this game is at K-State, I will go with them in this one.
  • Texas A&M at Texas Tech: Both teams will put up points, but Tech will put up more. Tech is tough in Lubbock.
  • Texas at Missouri: I'll just say it now, Texas goes undefeated the rest of the way. They will be that good. So whenever you see a Texas game, just consider it a win.
  • Oklahoma at Kansas: KU will get rolled, sorry KU.
  • Oklahoma State at Baylor: OSU will win this game somewhat easily. Playing on the road can be tough, but not when it's at Baylor.
  • Iowa State at Nebraska: Nebraska wins. I am just hoping ISU can make it a game

Here's how the standings will look after Week 8:

Big 12 North:

  • Nebraska: 3-0 (6-1 overall)
  • Kansas State: 3-1 (6-2 overall)
  • Kansas: 2-1 (6-1 overall)
  • ISU: 1-3 (5-3 overall)
  • Colorado: 0-3 (3-4 overall)
  • Missouri: 0-3 (3-4 overall)

Big 12 South:

  • Oklahoma: 3-0 (7-0 overall)
  • Oklahoma State: 3-0 (6-1 overall)
  • Texas: 3-1 (6-1 overall)
  • Texas Tech: 2-2 (5-3 overall)
  • Baylor: 0-3 (3-4 overall)
  • Texas A&M: 0-3 (3-4 overall)

At this point in the season, I would expect K-State fans to be all pumped that they are in 2nd place and 2/3 of the way through their season. Looking ahead the next couple of weeks, it's pretty clear that it will be tough to stay in contention for the North. In the South, nothing too surprising. It sets up a good showdown the following week between OSU and Texas, as it will be the battle for 2nd in the South.

Week 9 (October 31)

  • Texas at Oklahoma State: This game was very close last year (28-24). OSU will have a shot being at home, but I still have questions about their D. OSU will have a handful of new starters in the secondary, and if those guys aren't up to speed by this point in the season, Texas' offense will eat them up. This game gets decided by a late TD or FG, but I think Texas has enough D to make the stops when they need to.
  • Kansas State at Oklahoma: Oklahoma blowout, 'nuff said.
  • Kansas at Texas Tech: Tech picks up a much needed win to get above .500 in the Big 12, and will clinch bowl eligibility at this point. It was a blowout last year (63-21), and I think Leach has proven he can put a team on the field that can put up points. TTU brings back a lot of that D that held KU to 21 last year. It could be a little closer, but I don't see 42 points being made up.
  • Nebraska at Baylor: I like Nebraska here. It will be a lower scoring game, but I am a believer in Nebraska's D, and Nebraska will have the running game to grind a win out.
  • Iowa State at Texas A&M: Last year, ISU didn't punt and lost at home. I think ISU will be better, but we have this problem with winning on the road. Perhaps we break the streak of conference road losses, with getting a win in the last place we have away from Jack Trice, but I think A&M gets their first conference win of the season here.
  • Missouri at Colorado: Missouri has a good OL, a great running back, and Colorado seems to have a weakness on the D-Line.  Missouri gets a much needed Big 12 victory, and I would expect Colorado to come out the gates stumbling after suffering a tough loss on the road to Kansas State

Big 12 North:

  • Nebraska: 4-0 (7-1 overall)
  • Kansas State: 3-2 (6-3 overall)
  • Kansas: 2-2 (6-2 overall)
  • Missouri: 1-3 (4-4 overall)
  • ISU: 1-4 (5-4 overall)
  • Colorado: 0-4 (3-5 overall)

Big 12 South:

  • Oklahoma: 4-0 (8-0 overall)
  • Texas: 4-1 (7-1 overall)
  • Oklahoma State: 3-1 (6-2 overall)
  • Texas Tech: 3-2 (6-3 overall)
  • Texas A&M: 1-3 (4-4 overall)
  • Baylor: 0-4 (3-5 overall)

Texas moves to 2nd in the South as expected. Tech looks to be bowl-bound, A&M keeps their bowl hopes alive, and Baylor's season is slipping away. On to the next week!

Week 10 (November 7)

  • Oklahoma at Nebraska: Huge game, and a potential preview of the Big 12 title game. Nebraska will be the class of the North, but they don't have all of the pieces to compete with the South.
  • Oklahoma State at Iowa State: ISU loses to an unmotivated OSU team
  • Baylor at Missouri: Missouri picks up their 2nd conference win of the season. They haven't lost to Baylor since the Big 12 formed, and I don't think it happens. I realize the game was close last year (31-28), but I also think Mizzou checked out of that game at times.
  • Texas A&M at Colorado: The battle of coaches desperate to keep their jobs and desperate to keep the bowl hopes alive. For CU it's do-or-die, and I think they win.
  • Kansas at Kansas State: KU is just slightly ahead of K-State. KU gets the edge for having a proven QB, RB, and a somewhat better D (although neither team will be bragging about their D outside of some individuals, IMO)
  • UCF at Texas: UCF against Texas in Austin? Practically a bye week for Texas, in my opinion.
  • Bye: Texas Tech

Big 12 North:

  • Nebraska: 4-1 (7-2 overall)
  • Kansas: 3-2 (7-2 overall)
  • Kansas State: 3-3 (6-4 overall)
  • Missouri: 2-3 (5-4 overall)
  • Colorado: 1-4 (4-5 overall)
  • ISU: 1-5 (5-5 overall)

Big 12 South:

  • Oklahoma: 5-0 (9-0 overall)
  • Texas: 4-1 (8-1 overall)
  • Oklahoma State: 4-1 (7-2 overall)
  • Texas Tech: 3-2 (6-3 overall)
  • Texas A&M: 1-4 (4-5 overall)
  • Baylor: 0-5 (3-6 overall)

Not a whole lot new here. Missouri's little streak has made a bowl berth seem possible, while it's becoming more clear that A&M, Baylor, and Colorado are not going to be seeing any kind of postseason. Nebraska vs. Kansas this following week is a big game as it will be a battle for 1st in the North!

Week 11 (November 14)

  • Nebraska at Kansas: The battle for the North. Whomever wins has the inside track on playing in the Championship game. This is a tough game to pick. I do not think Nebraska will be able to match their 45 point total last year, with losing Gantz, Swift, and Peterson. The question is will Nebraska's D, be able to hold Kansas' offense? I think KU will actually be the same if not better on Offense, and will be improved on Defense, plus this game will be in Kansas. I am going to go with the Jayhawks, and Husker nation will have a huge meltdown.
  • Texas Tech at Oklahoma State: Texas Tech will be coming off a bye. Mike Leach is 28-7 coming off a loss, and 8-8 coming off a bye. After having a loss, then a bye, I think Tech will be ready to roll. A heartbreaker for OSU.
  • Missouri at Kansas State: Bill Snyder has had Missouri's number, so I look for Synder to try to get the team motivated. He has to want to win just to shut people up. This will also be a game that Missouri will need to have a shot at going bowling.
  • Texas at Baylor: Texas
  • Texas A&M at Oklahoma: Oklahoma
  • Colorado at Iowa State: ISU. We should've won last year. This year, we finish the job.

Big 12 North:

  • Kansas: 4-2 (8-2 overall)
  • Nebraska: 4-2 (7-3 overall)
  • Missouri: 3-3 (6-4 overall)
  • Kansas State: 3-4 (6-5 overall)
  • ISU: 2-5 (6-5 overall)
  • Colorado: 1-5 (4-6 overall)

Big 12 South:

  • Oklahoma: 6-0 (10-0 overall)
  • Texas: 5-1 (9-1 overall)
  • Texas Tech: 4-2 (7-3 overall)
  • Oklahoma State: 4-2 (7-3 overall)
  • Texas A&M: 1-5 (4-6 overall)
  • Baylor: 0-6 (3-7 overall)

Kansas takes the lead in first, while Missouri becomes bowl eligible. TTU clinches yet another winning season.

Week 12 (November 21)

  • Kansas at Texas: Texas has the offense to go toe-to-toe with KU offensivley, and have the defense to slow Kansas down.
  • Oklahoma at Texas Tech: Same as above, but substitute "Oklahoma" for "Texas" and "TTU" for "KU"
  • Colorado at Oklahoma State (Nov. 19): Oklahoma State, and it won't be close.
  • Baylor at Texas A&M: Baylor wins a close one.
  • Kansas State at Nebraska: Nebraska is better and will be at home
  • Iowa State at Missouri: Big game. I have both teams with 6 wins, hoping to get that key 7th win to get that bowl bid. ISU hasn't fared will in Big games at the end of the season on the road. ISU loses, but suprises everyone with a .500 record, and Missouri gets that 7th win and pats themselves on the back for pulling off a 4 game win streak.

Big 12 North:

  • Nebraska: 5-2 (8-3 overall)
  • Kansas: 4-3 (8-3 overall)
  • Missouri: 4-3 (7-4 overall)
  • Kansas State: 3-5 (6-6 overall)
  • ISU: 2-6 (6-6 overall)
  • Colorado: 1-6 (4-7 overall)

Big 12 South:

  • Oklahoma: 7-0 (11-0 overall)
  • Texas: 6-1 (10-1 overall)
  • Oklahoma State: 5-2 (8-3 overall)
  • Texas Tech: 4-3 (7-4 overall)
  • Baylor: 1-6 (4-7 overall)
  • Texas A&M: 1-6 (4-7 overall)

Nebraska takes the lead and celebrates the fact they didn't have to face Texas AND OU like Kansas had to this year. Missouri gets to the benchmark 7 win total, while ISU becomes bowl eligible.

Week 13 (November 28)

  • Oklahoma State at Oklahoma: Oklahoma
  • Missouri at Kansas (Kansas City, MO): Kansas lost to Mizzou by 3 last year. Kansas should be better, and Missouri should be worse, so I think Kansas will win.
  • Nebraska at Colorado (Nov. 27): This used to be a big rivalry.Colorado has pulled off unlikely victories in this series, but I think Nebraska finds a way to get the W.
  • Texas at Texas A&M (Nov. 26): Texas
  • Baylor at Texas Tech (Arlington, TX): I don't think Baylor will be able to keep up with Tech's scoring. Tech will also be playing for a bowl bid, while Baylor may be checking out mentally as they look for an end to their dissapointing season.
  • Bye: ISU, Kansas State

Big 12 North:

  • Nebraska: 6-2 (9-3 overall)
  • Kansas: 5-3 (9-3 overall)
  • Missouri: 4-4 (7-5 overall)
  • Kansas State: 3-5 (6-6 overall)
  • ISU: 2-6 (6-6 overall)
  • Colorado: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 South:

  • Oklahoma: 8-0 (12-0 overall)
  • Texas: 7-1 (11-1 overall)
  • Texas Tech: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
  • Oklahoma State: 5-3 (8-4 overall)
  • Baylor: 1-7 (4-8 overall)
  • Texas A&M: 1-7 (4-8 overall)

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma over Nebraska. Hard to beat a team twice, but I think Oklahoma is good enough to get the job done and reach the National Championship Game.

Dissapointing years for Baylor, A&M, and Colorado fans, and I think Sherman and Hawkins get canned. The Big 12 ends with 8 bowl eligible teams (K-State has 6 wins, but 2 against FCS teams, and only 1 counts towards bowl eligibility. K-State needs to get to 7 wins to become bowl eligible).

Overall, it would look to be a tough year in the Big 12. The South is still way ahead of the North, which is too bad for the league, but that's the reality of the Big 12.

Regardless of how you feel about these projections, I think it's safe to say that 2009 looks to be another exciting year in the Big 12. A lot of big matchups, and several of the teams are so good, that one little mistake will have a huge impact on the season as a whole for these teams.

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