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Why I Do Not Understand All Of The 5-7 Bowl Team Talk

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I did a little research today, because I notice more and more people discussing whether a 5-7 team will go bowling. I think the discussion is premature, as I do not believe it is going to happen.

Right now we have 64 bowl eligible teams. 70 are needed to fill all the slots, so simple math says we need 6 more teams. In addition there are 20 teams that are still alive in that they have not lost their 7th game yet.

Of those 20 teams, I think we can cross off Cincy (who have to win both of @UConn and Pitt) and Rutgers (who have to beat both Louisville and @WVU). So now we have 18 teams to potentially fill in the 6 spots.

Of the 18 teams I think would still be alive, these are the teams I think 8 have a serious chance at getting bowl eligible:

Georgia (5-6) - they are just straight up better than Georgia Tech, and are playing this game at home.

Tennessee (5-6) - it's been a rough year for the Vols I suppose, but they face a team with less talent on paper than them, and get to do it at home. Not to mention Tennesse is riding a 3 game winning streak, and has a lot of positive momentum heading into this game.

Cal (5-6) - they are an enigma to say the least. But they've got a home game against a team they should beat. This team has one point losses to each of Arizona and Oregon. They have it in them to play big, but they also have it in them to lay an egg, getting blown out by Nevada, USC, Oregon State, and Stanford. If the right team shows up, the Golden Bears go bowling.

Florida International (5-5) - they've got 2 games, both at home, both against teams that Sagarin thinks they are much better than.

Troy (5-5) - they have a home game against Western Kentucky and they travel to FAU for a coin-flip game. Western Kentucky has been going toe-to-toe with mid tier Sun Belt teams. Troy is one of the better ones.

Lousiana-Monroe (5-6) - takes on a 2-9 Lousiana-Lafayette team at home

Colorado (5-6) - they need to beat Nebraska in Lincoln, but face a Husker team that is playing bad and have a ton of distractions going on, on a short week. Colorado has looked like a different team these past two weeks. A Buff win in Lincoln isn't hard to fathom

Louisville (5-6) - a modest favorite over Rutgers. The Big East has been bad, but Rutgers appears to be the worst team in that conference. If you can't beat them, you don't deserve to go bowling anyhow.

Other teams that could get bowl eligible in my opinion:

Texas (5-6) - face an A&M team better than them, but its a rivalry game, and it is a home game (although that hasn't meant much for Texas this year).

Idaho (5-6) - they go to Fresno State and then play San Jose State. Fresno State is literally a pick 'em type of a game, and San Jose State should be an easy win. Because they will be playing 13 games, they would have to win 7 to get bowl eligible

Oregon State (5-5) - they go to Stanford then face Oregon. They lost close to Oregon last year (lost by 4),  but they have beat Oregon before in big games. I expect the Beavers to lose both these games, but they just have to pull off one upset. Easier said than done, but possible.

Washington (4-6) - they have two road games, against Cal and Wazzu. If Cal doesn't show up for the game, I like Washington's chances to make a bowl game this year.

So that's 12 teams total but really 11 possible as either Washington or Cal (or neither) will go to a bowl game, not both.

I just feel like too much would have to go wrong for there not to be 70 teams eligible this year. So why are people freaking out?