What should we expect from the Red Raiders this Saturday? As usual that's a complicated question, and with the judicious aid of a few statistics, I'll provide a complicated answer. In addition, I've been in contact with Seth C of doubletnation.com and I've asked him several questions and he's asked me several questions about our respective teams. Look for Seth's answers later this week!
The Numbers
As usual, the numbers look ugly in their raw form, but here's how Texas Tech stacks up nationally through 3 games (they had a bye week last week after facing the Longhorns on 9/18).
Name, National Rank, Yards (or incidents) per Game
Rushing Offense: 116, 70.00
Passing Offense: 23, 275.67
Total Offense: 83, 345.67
Scoring Offense: 38, 33.67
Rushing Defense: 22, 99.67
Pass Efficiency Defense: 31, 111.16
Total Defense: 67, 360.00
Scoring Defense: T-59, 22.67
Net Punting: 11, 42.07
Punt Returns: 9.57
Kickoff Returns: 9, 28.54
Turnover Margin: 7, 1.67
Pass Defense: 100, 260.33
Passing Efficiency: 62, 131.47
Sacks: 3, 4.00
Tackles for Loss: 20, 7.67
Sacks Allowed: 78, 2.33
What The Numbers Mean
Thankfully, there are several rays of sunshine to be hopeful about here. Defensively the Red Raiders are allowing ~100 yards of rushing and ~260 yards of passing per game. Why is this encouraging? Similarly to the Cyclones, the Red Raiders appear to use a "Bend but don't Break" philosophy on defense, they're not shutting down offenses completely, and I like the Cyclone's chances of running the ball effectively against Tech's front 7. Tech's only major game so far was against the Longhorns and after last week we all know how effective their running game is. Another plus is the apparent lack of talent on the offensive line, which has given up 2.33 sacks per game and has helped gather 70 yards per game of rushing.
On the negative side, Tech has held on to the ball well this year. They're +1.67 turnovers per game, so we can't automatically assume we're going to be on the receiving side of a lot of turnovers Saturday. Similarly, the Red Raider's special teams unit has been fantastic and is 9th in the nation on Kickoff returns. Also, at 33.67 points per game, Tech can put some points on the board. If we allow them to score that many against us, we're doomed and we all know it.
Overall, I'd say Tech is a solid middle of the pack contender in the Big 12 South, but that they're still figuring out exactly how this new coaching thing is going to settle out. In the end, my gut tells me that the game will be decided based on the play of ISU's defense.
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