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Improbable Runs Are Improbable

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Last night I watched the NCAA championship game, and with the tournament being over, it has been a moment of reflection for most of us. It certainley was that was for the morning crew over at KXNO. While making my morning commute, I was treated to a rundown of Iowa's lineup, and a player-by-player comparison of how the Hawkeyes are almost as talented as Butler. Bryce Cartwright is as good as Shelvin Mack, and Basabe is going to be better than Matt Howard, so why can't the Hawkeyes make an improbable run of their own in a year or two?

I laughed outloud for a good few minutes after hearing this kind of analysis. It really cracks me up. Then it made me realize something. If these two Hawks are doing it, chances are fans everywhere are looking at their (hopefully) mediocre-ish team out there and wondering if they can do the same thing that Butler or VCU did. I'm sure there's a Cyclone fan or two out there doing that as well.

If you're a fan of a team and they make it to the tournament as an 8 or an 11 seed, then sure, go ahead and say "why not?".  I don't see a problem in that. What I do see a problem with is going up and down those team's lineups, comparing them to your own team, and saying "our team is going to do that next year".

I feel like if fans do that sort of thing, it destroys the beauty that is the NCAA tournament. The fun in Butler and VCU making the runs they did this year, is that nobody expected them to do it at all. VCU "wasn't supposed to be there", and Butler barley made it into the tournament this year. We got to watch two teams that believed in themselves, and got a little lucky (especially Butler) along the way, to do something we haven't seen in a while.

Remember, while VCU was a team that "wasn't supposed to be there" neither was UAB. While Butler went deep, had Pittsburgh or Old Dominion had the ball last in those games, Butler would have been gone. It's the nature of the tournament and it's fun. But for your own sake, don't convince yourself that your team is a Butler or a VCU, because they probably aren't.